Some thoughts and statistics about the importance and value of likes

Discussion in 'Authors' Hangout' started by Conan The Librarian, Jul 4, 2020.

  1. Conan The Librarian

    Conan The Librarian Really Experienced

    So, after watching this recent post here https://forum.chyoa.com/threads/how-important-are-likes-to-you.2817/, I thought it would be an ideal moment to talk about this, in relation to how important likes are and how you should value them in your own story: I'm sort of a fan for spreadsheets, I like to do them when I'm bored. So, I did one for my story in this site, Whore of the Dragon. Its not a very refined or complex thing: basically, I entered every chapter views and likes, did a simple division and asked the program to give me an average and other calculations. The purpose was simply to know how many likes per view I had in each chapter. The numbers themselves are not really that important for what I want to say, but here is part of the crude data for my first 20 chapters so that you get an idea:

    Chapter — Views — Likes — Ratio (number of views per like)
    1.1 — 42844 — 77 — 556,42
    2.1 — 14725 — 54 — 272,69
    3.1 — 10224 —49 — 208,65
    4.1 — 8655 — 54 — 160,28
    5.1 — 7692 — 62 — 124,06
    6.1 — 6153 — 53 — 116,09
    7.1 — 6095 — 51 — 119,51
    8.1 — 3107 — 37 — 83,97
    9.1 — 5011 — 42 — 119,31
    10.1 — 4411 — 43 — 102,58
    11.1 — 4564 — 46 — 99,22
    12.1 — 4282 — 40 — 107,05
    13.1 — 4226 — 50 — 84,52
    14.1 — 3659 — 43 — 85,09
    15.1 — 3800 — 41 — 92,68
    16.1 — 3169 — 44 — 72,02
    17.1 — 2702 — 37 — 73,03
    18.1 — 2719 — 40 — 67,98
    19.1 — 2703 — 41 — 65,93
    20.1 — 2501 — 33 — 75,79
    ... and so and so

    Now, here is what I really want to say, which is the patterns that I see in those numbers and my reflections on them. I also want to add that I cheeked for this patterns in other stories of the site, to see them repeated almost without exception. (I won't post the data or names of those stories out of respect for their authors, but I encourage you to test this in your own stories). Here are those patterns:

    1. The number of views gets skewed really, REALLY quickly and then stabilises the deeper you get into a story. The first chapter is always the most viewed by A LOT, at least two or three times more than just the second chapter. Which means that many many people will take a look at your story and then decide that is not their thing. In my own example, by chapter ten I have almost 10 times less views than in chapter one, and the number will only get lower. My average number of views is 1865,5 per chapter, which is much more lower than that initial 42844.
    2. The number of likes it's more unstable and variable, but it also tends to get lower, except for chapters that achieve a sort of '''''dramatic''''' climax. This is a simple and direct result of less people reaching those chapters, which is a natural thing that should not worry you.
    3. However, and this is the important fact, while views and likes go lower, the ratio of those likes only gets HIGHER, meaning the percentage of those views that give a like grows equally notably. You have less of an audience, but it is a far more 'grateful' one. To maintain my own example, my first chapter is by far the most liked, with 77 likes, but it has an abysmal ratio with 556,42 views per like, meaning less that two likes per thousand views. Now, compare this to my most recent chapter, which has a much more humble number of 5 likes, but with only 95 views so far. One like per exactly 17 visits. That's an improvement of 3273%! and I asure you that you will see that pattern repeated in your own work, specially the deeper your story goes. In my own case, the ratio tends to stabilise around 70 views per like.
    If you only look at the crude numbers of your story (that is, your likes) you will tend to think that people have lost interest in it, and don't take me wrong, a lot of people do, but if you do this simple division you will notice that the people that stays with you, as few as they might be, they stay for a reason and they want you to know it. This is ultimately an erotica site and most people use it as a more refined way to jerk off, and don't care that much about character or plot development. It's easy and tempting to write for these people, but they won't stay for many chapters. You should write for yourself and for the people that stay a hundred chapters with you, not for those that cummed in the introduction and left because you used the word skullfuck, as beautiful and evocative as that word might be.

    Hope you are all doing well.
     
  2. Haoro

    Haoro Really Really Experienced CHYOA Backer

    Wow, cool analysis. I've definitely noticed the same anecdotally but it's nice to see the actual stats. In my story because I have several different threads leading off the introduction focusing on different ideas the number of likes and views does vary a lot between each one. There's a couple that are much more popular in both metrics (Futa, Incest and Feminization) which I think is probably just to do with those being more appealing to readers of this site. I don't really mind anyway so long as there's some interest since I write all the threads equally anyway, but it is interesting to see.
     
  3. Conan The Librarian

    Conan The Librarian Really Experienced

    yeah, I also didn't mention that certain chapters marginally grew in views, mainly the ones with suggestive titles, meaning that there is terrible people out there who literally skips to chapters with certain words in the title.
     
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  4. gene.sis

    gene.sis CHYOA Guru

    I can relate to that ^^

    Though there's a problem with your analysis

    The problem is that ONE view simply means that the page got loaded ONCE.
    So if one user loads the site 150 times, they create 150 views.
    Furthermore, it doesn't even have to be an actual user. Every page load is counted.
    So when Google crawls your story, it creates views.

    So only a stat "Unique Views" would be useful to do such an analysis. (Even though that stat doesn't exist at the moment, it could be accurately calculated for all existing stories.)

    (I also made the suggestion Likes per Unique Views to change the current story/chapter ranking.)
     
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  5. Conan The Librarian

    Conan The Librarian Really Experienced

    Hi, gene.sis, I'm aware of this fact, and even if it distorts the data, I don't think it negates my general thesis, which is that early chapters have a more bombastic reception, while deeper chapter are less visited, but deliver a more consistent outcome. Even if the numbers may have this margin of error, the pattern is still consistent. I think that the only point where that data inflation is notable would be in the first chapter, since it is naturally loaded any time someone access the story for any reason.
     
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  6. Zeebop

    Zeebop CHYOA Guru

    I too keep a spreadsheet for my story Lois Lane's Night Out, and for comparison:

    Chapter — Views — Likes — Ratio (number of views per like)
    1.1 — 237385 — 69 — 3440.36
    2.1 — 57750 — 52 — 1110.57
    3.1 — 28184 — 34 — 828.94
    4.1 — 21276 — 35 — 607.88
    5.1 — 14136 — 24 — 589.00
    6.1 — 12160 — 25 — 486.40
    7.1 — 10827 — 21 — 515.57
    8.1 — 9393 — 29 — 323.89
    9.1 — 8213 — 33 — 248.87
    10.1 — 6568 — 30 — 218.93
    11.1 — 6882 — 36 — 191.16
    12.1 — 6716 — 31 — 216.64
    13.1 — 5416 — 30 — 180.53
    14.1 — 5042 — 24 — 210.08
    15.1 — 5113 — 24 — 213.04
    16.1 — 5434 — 25 — 217.36
    17.1 — 4226 — 22 — 192.09
    18.1 — 3588 — 23 — 156.00
    19.1 — 4137 — 29 — 142.65
    20.1 — 3838 — 24 — 159.91

    Very different numbers than "Whore of the Dragon," but then it's a very different kind of story; WotD has 85 chapters, LLNO has 2768 at this time of writing. The vastly greater number of branches in LLNO - and the more tightly written narrative of WotD - I think keeps more users focused on the primary branch in WotD. Likewise, LLNO is using a likes-based system to determine which chapters get updates soonest, so there are pauses in branches that can affect viewership numbers.
     
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  7. insertnamehere

    insertnamehere Really Really Experienced

    You seem to underestimate the effect of views left by both repeated accesses and bots. The data for the first chapter is a known anomaly and should be discarded in any analysis.

    For The Lord's Companion:

    Chapter --- Views --- Likes --- Ratio
    1.1 ---------- 19027 -- 27 ------- 704.7037
    2.1 ---------- 7638 --- 21 ------- 363.7143
    3.1 ---------- 4453 --- 18 ------- 247.3889
    4.1 ---------- 3343 --- 20 ------- 167.15
    5.1 ---------- 2814 --- 18 ------- 156.3333
    6.1 ---------- 2439 --- 18 ------- 135.5
    7.1 ---------- 2092 --- 15 ------- 139.4667
    8.1 ---------- 1960 --- 20 ------- 98
    9.1 ---------- 2407 --- 21 ------- 114.619
    10.1 --------- 1736 --- 14 ------- 124
    11.1 --------- 1559 --- 16 ------- 97.4375
    12.1 --------- 1494 --- 17 ------- 87.88235
    13.1 --------- 1246 --- 13 ------- 95.84615
    14.1 --------- 1147 --- 13 ------- 88.23077
    15.1 --------- 1392 --- 15 ------- 92.8
    16.1 --------- 1061 --- 14 ------- 75.78571
    17.1 --------- 980 ---- 16 ------- 61.25
    18.1 --------- 855 ---- 12 ------- 71.25
    19.1 --------- 863 ---- 15 ------- 57.53333
    20.1 --------- 827 ---- 12 ------- 68.91667

    The ratio peaks at 10.1, 13.1, 15.1, and 18.1. Of them, only one is a sex scene, and the chapter titles aren't especially suggestive. To me that indicates that these chapters are of lesser quality, i.e. any given person is less probable to like them. The views and likes both peak at the more 'fun' scenes, of course.
     
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  8. insertnamehere

    insertnamehere Really Really Experienced

    Just for fun, here's Darkest Challenges:

    Chapter --- Views --- Likes --- Ratio
    1.1 --------- 20919 --- 24 ------ 871.625
    2.1 --------- 6999 ---- 14 ------ 499.9286
    3.1 --------- 5187 ----- 10 ------ 518.7
    4.1 --------- 10199 --- 10 ------ 1019.9
    5.1 --------- 5013 ----- 6 ------ 835.5
    6.1 --------- 4593 ----- 6 ------ 765.5
    7.1 --------- 3609 ----- 6 ------ 601.5
    8.1 --------- 8412 ----- 7 ------ 1201.714
    9.1 --------- 6179 ----- 6 ------ 1029.833
    10.1 -------- 2296 ---- 6 ------ 382.6667
    11.1 -------- 5443 ----- 7 ------ 777.5714
    12.1 -------- 3162 ----- 2 ------ 1581
    13.1 -------- 2159 ----- 5 ------ 431.8
    14.1 -------- 3612 ----- 5 ------ 722.4
    15.1 -------- 2086 ----- 1 ------ 2086
    16.1 -------- 1049 ----- 2 ------ 524.5
    17.1 -------- 2441 ----- 4 ------ 610.25
    18.1 -------- 1915 ----- 5 ------ 383
    19.1 -------- 1471 ----- 4 ------ 367.75
    20.1 -------- 1196 ----- 4 ------ 299

    It's a bit all over the place, and the stats drop dramatically a few chapters in... for reasons obvious to anyone who's played it. The model is definitely useless when it comes to Game Mode stories.
     
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  9. wilparu

    wilparu Really Really Experienced CHYOA Backer

    Oh god now I need to do this. I love looking at the numbers heh.

    My personal favourite metric is my own likes per chapter as an average over all my stories. I like it because it's easy to calculate and it means I'm just comparing myself to myself. If I put up a bunch of chapters that get fewer likes, the average goes down (slightly). Over time, if readers find and start liking my earlier works my average goes up slightly. I enjoy the milestones, I hit an average of 40 a month ago and it took a *long* time to get there from 30 so that felt great. I'm at 42.7 likes/chapter right now, but it went down a bit since I uploaded 3 chapters in rapid succession to one of my newest and least popular stories.
     
  10. wilparu

    wilparu Really Really Experienced CHYOA Backer

    Ok, here is my first story:
    My Daughter's New Boyfriend

    Ch. - Views ---- Likes ---- Ratio
    1.1 --- 52073 ---- 121 ----- 430.36
    2.1 --- 20844 --- 71 ----- 293.58
    3.1 --- 15060 --- 70 ----- 215.14
    4.1 --- 13765 --- 66 ----- 208.56
    5.1 --- 13421 --- 58 ----- 231.40
    6.1 --- 12424 --- 59 ----- 210.58
    7.1 --- 11659 --- 69 ----- 168.97
    8.1 --- 11105 --- 65 ----- 170.85
    9.1 --- 10702 --- 74 ----- 144.62
    10.1 -- 10515 --- 61 ----- 172.38
    11.1 -- 9471 --- 70 ----- 135.30
    12.1 -- 10895 -- 64 ----- 170.23
    13.1 -- 9748 --- 81 ----- 120.35
    14.1 -- 10500 --- 81 ----- 129.63
    15.1 -- 8853 --- 72 ----- 122.96
    16.1 -- 8608 --- 82 ----- 104.98
    17.1 -- 7473 --- 60 ----- 124.55
    18.1 -- 6638 --- 54 ----- 122.93
    19.1 -- 6463 --- 57 ----- 113.39
    20.1 -- 6438 --- 83 ----- 77.57

    Hmm looking back my story started slow with a fair bit of buildup for several chapters until the more open sex started around chapter 9. Then it got very graphic for a looong time (I was a new writer and the sex scenes were fun to write still ;P) and then, in chapter 18-19 is a short interlude where I split the 3 characters up only to have chapter 20 a long-distance sex scene over FaceTime where they all happily agree to move in together.

    To me, the lower the ratio the better as you go on. I like the notion that the higher percentage of readers is taking the time to hit that Like button, and my first chapter has a grossly inflated view count because my story hit Story of the Week thanks to my insane output the first few weeks after I started. Still, a ratio of 77 on the 20th chapter is damn good IMO, but you can tell the large number of views with fewer relative likes in the early setup chapters. BUT, the readers who are interested in the long buildup seem to be very loyal and that's pretty awesome and something I think many writers here would notice too, and that's born out in the lowering ratio over time.

    And a random story I picked because it has two branches 5 chapters in.
    The Christmas Stocking Stuffer Erotic Coupon

    Chapter -- Views-- Likes ---- Ratio |---| Ratio ----- View -- Likes -- Chapter
    1.1--------- 9557 ---- 73 ---- 130.92
    2.1 -------- 6654 ---- 75 ---- 88.72
    3.1 -------- 6654 ---- 75 ---- 88.72
    4.1 -------- 6745 ---- 80 ---- 84.31
    5.1 -------- 5004 ---- 78 ---- 64.15 |---| 77.17 ----- 5942 -- 77 ---- 5.2
    6.1 -------- 4024 ---- 73 ---- 55.12 |---| 52.75 ----- 4062 -- 77 ---- 6.2
    7.1 -------- 2871 ---- 63 ---- 45.57 |---| 48.99 ----- 3380 -- 69 ---- 7.2
    8.1 -------- 2659 ---- 66 ---- 40.29 |---| 49.38 ----- 3012 -- 61 ---- 8.2
    9.1 -------- 2982 ---- 53 ---- 56.26 |---| 43.14 ----- 2200 -- 51 ---- 9.2
    10.1 ------- 2085 --- 59 ---- 35.34 |---| 75.24 ----- 5116 -- 68 ---- 10.2
    11.1 ------- 2122 ---- 61 ----- 34.79 |---| 33.63 ----- 1816 -- 54 ---- 11.2
    12.1 ------- 2196 ---- 60 ---- 36.60 |---| 32.50 ----- 1885 -- 58 ---- 12.2

    A bit messy but interesting. The .1 path is the main branch with the sister as the primary romantic character, and the .2 is the mother branch. I'm surprised how consistent both are, when you adjust for the fact the 'action' happens at different points in both paths they are very similar. I also guess there is a core of fans who like the chapters and they tend to read both branches, because the ratio stays so similar. I like that. And the ratio's for many chapters being in the 30's and 40's is very cool to me.

    I won't bother doing the stats on my branch in The Affection Multiplier, having a branch in that story is basically a cheat code for Likes and having a branch so far down means you get fewer random pageviews from bots and stuff so your ratio stays good ;)
     
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  11. insertnamehere

    insertnamehere Really Really Experienced

    Of all possible stats, this is probably the only one I actively take into consideration. Likes and favourites are just, "Oh, that's nice." Likes per chapter, however, indicates how much the content tends to be enjoyed. It's a good way of measuring progress over time, as an increase in just likes may just be the natural consequence of publishing a new chapter. An increase in the likes/chapter, however, shows growth in readership. It's not something that informs what or how I write, but it's the only metric by which I judge my own stories, and it's the only one that motivates me.
     
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  12. Conan The Librarian

    Conan The Librarian Really Experienced

    Well, I never thought that you would all start posting your own data. jajaja. That was great. I honestly posted mine just because I found it dishonest to start talking about numbers and not show any, so I just copy pasted the first 20 lines of the table. That said, that was easy to do with my story because it has a notably longer main route that goes first. Also WotD is not particularly long, so the pattern appears soon. Obviously, this gets more complicated with stories that have many diverging paths where, instead of having a long descending curve you have a bunch of lesser descending curves. Game modes are also much more complicated, as it has being addressed.
     
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  13. gene.sis

    gene.sis CHYOA Guru

    - Deeper chapters surely have less unique views
    - The introduction has surely a high amount of unique views
    - The number of Likes slowly declines the deeper the story becomes

    -> The number of Likes on a single chapter is a much better criterion of how many users have actually seen that chapter. (Given that there is already a moderate number of Likes to give a statistic a meaning.)
     
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  14. Zeebop

    Zeebop CHYOA Guru

    I don't find this unequivocally true; in general I find that the older chapters have more likes, but the individual merits of the chapter (particularly sex scenes) has a lot to do with popularity.
     
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  15. gene.sis

    gene.sis CHYOA Guru

    Of course.
    I meant in general like if you calculate a rolling average.
     
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  16. Darth_Halford

    Darth_Halford Experienced

    I have also noticed, at least in my own story, that just as the most views go towards the first chapter and things precede to fall precipitously from there, things also fall as you descend in branches.

    The first twelve chapters of the first branch in Caverns & Taverns has a sum total of 46635 views, whereas twelve chapters deep for the elf bard branch further down nets only 35031, despite them having been around for about the same length of time. The furthest branch down from the starting list, the tiefling cleric, a dozen chapters down only nets 15422
     
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